Six Months of Silence

And I just can't keep quiet any longer.

Too wit, the crabs are ferocious.  Nobody wants to see anyone win.  Republicans, Independents and Democrats. They could care less about the our country.  They only care about themselves, their ideologies and pulling the rest of us down.  Revisit my prior missives to understand how predictable this behavior was.

In April, I sent an email to a handful of friends explaining that I was exiting the majority of my stock positions and working exclusively on my wife's house, otherwise known as my dog house. Why? Call it a summer sell off. Call it too many independent variables such as Europe, or the yen or the middle east.  Whatever. Sell sell sell.  I only wish I had sold everything.

No sense in looking in the rearview mirror while driving forward (shouldn't this be a test for drivers in NJ?).  As all of you know, I never predict where the market will go; I simply follow it.

Using my cheap binoculars while still drinking decent gin, I anticipate these two macro themes for the next 12 to 18 months: 1) volatility will cool between now and mid September and then return if the S&P breaks below 1120; 2) shorting the S&P and using an inverted VIX etf will mitigate or hedge any long positions.