Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Another Contrarian Point of View

Is it just me or is there a new trend toward "truthiness"?  Here is another op ed piece dispelling conventional wisdom.  It's well worth the read.

http://finance.yahoo.com/career-work/article/110775/time-to-stop-worshiping-small-businesses;_ylt=AhTimDExEUDetEMvOu01IJy7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTFmNGc0bjh2BHBvcwMzBHNlYwNleHBlcnRPcGluaW9uRHluYW1pYwRzbGsDbGV0c3N0b3B3b3Jz

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Good Economic News

This is the most under read, least publicized good news story I've run across.  A "must read" for those os us who still believe intellect is more important than ideology.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/225164-the-budget-deficit-is-falling

I Just look Old

One thing most of us have in common is furniture.  And, for most of us, it's old.  It's from family members who are now collecting pensions;  it's from college and we've kept it around for memories of good times that we couldn't remember anyway, and; we mistakenly believe every piece was a Chippendale or Tiffany or of such great value it will propel us through our last years.

Nonsense. It's old crappy furniture. Get rid of it!

Two months ago I carefully placed my original iphone in the glove compartment and gently closed the door.  Unfortunately, the glass shattered.  I was not happy primarily because I'm cheap.  I researched replacing the glass and it simply wasn't worth it.  So, I did what I thought I would never do:  I taped it together.

Ever seen the old guy sitting in a diner with his glasses taped together and said "damn that just looks awful, I'll never do that"?  Well, I did it to an iphone.

My "daughter" and her friend-boy returned from a short vacation last night.  They were over at the house and we were discussing new eye glasses.  They were very sweet in convincing me that I needed to shed the old style glasses and get something more modern.  They basically called me "old furniture" and suggested I discard my taste in eye glasses!

In two weeks or so I'll be wearing some "Tom Ford" look a-likes for reading.  I'm still going to look well over 70, at least until they sponsor a face lift, hair replacement and new dentures.  But, I'll have those glasses!

I managed to find my all time favorite glasses.  I had them hidden for about ten years.  Very cool looking rimless.  Very classy. Matches all the wrinkles around my eyes. Covers the drooping eyelids.

Off to the repair store.  I'll teach those kids a lesson!  New lenses, some restorative work and I'll have them back in service.

So, I didn't throw out all of the old-I kept just one.  They'll make a nice contrast to the new ones.

There are some things worth keeping no matter how old they get:  ME!

Happy Birthday Mr. Investing Woodworker!

Rules, Regulations and Am I in Big Trouble! (again)

Several years ago I attended a family dinner with my in laws and their relatives.  We were in a lovely restaurant in a warm foreign country and I was on my very best behavior.  The check was about to arrive when I motioned to the waiter to give it to me.  My wife's cousins were given the check and my father-in-law gave me a lesson.

You see, in this Korean family, there are "regulations".  I almost violated one of those regulations by intercepting the dinner check.  Apparently, the custom is for the children of the person celebrating a special birthday, to pay.  This made no sense.  Their children are both working but hardly have the sort of discretionary money to just throw around.  Besides, even if they did, why shouldn't they spend it on a nice Chanel hand bag?

Last week we were in New York City to celebrate a wedding with the same family.  Sure enough, I discovered more new "regulations".  This time, I was kibitzing with a young person when my wife demanded I return to her. OBG, I had violated a regulation that I didn't even know existed!  Hell hath no fury like a .... Well you know what happened.

So, since I yearn to be accepted into my wife's family,  it is about time I codify mine.  First, for the investor:  Reg 1:  never act on a tip; Reg 2: Homework; Reg 3: There is no one single best approach to success; Reg 4:  Don't fight the Fed; Reg 5: sell your losers.

Well, I have at least 25 more  investing "regulations" that I self impose on myself every day.  But, this is not the place to bore you.

In the shop, "regulation" number one is always Safety.  Reg 2: measure twice, do it again and then cut once.

But here is my point:  regulations have to make sense.

They just can't be traditional and passed from generation to generation to be followed blindly-with one exception:  Thou Shalt Always Listen to She Who Must Be Obeyed, even when she is falling over drunk, screaming insults at cabbies and leaving DNA at the curb.

Of course, I wouldn't have the courage to write this unless I was sure nobody was reading it!  Hello, don't dare forward this to you know who!!!

Mr. K-thanks for a great time in NY!

Monday, August 23, 2010

Pleasure is Found Wherever

Have you ever so escaped reality that you couldn't hear Tina Turner singing Only The Best in the background?  Have you ever left the real world to awaken feeling so relaxed you had no idea the time of day?

It was worked to perfection.  Two mortises, one at the top, the other just at the waist.  It was smooth and sleek.  Her natural color is blonde but with age, will turn darker.

She wasn't alone.  Along side of her where her two friends of 4/4 cherry polished to a sheen with the most perfect tenons I've ever seen.  When together, they measured slightly over five feet tall and 76 inches across.  Before me rests the perfect headboard.  Sensual, sharp, rich with natural color waiting for the interior decorator to choose the fabric.

Damn, it's 6:30 pm and I've been in that garage all day long.  I have to return to reality.  Who turned off Tina? I must have Tina in the background if I'm expected to create!

Some days, even when you haven't finished everything, you just have to stand back and appreciate the zen like state you've achieved for the moment.  The reward for all your hard work can't be measured in the dollars in your account.  It has to be measured in the pleasure you bring others.

When the headboard is finished "she who must always be obeyed" (did you love Rumpole of the Bailey?) will give her all too understated blessing providing me with the sliver of gratitude I must call pleasure.  What else could a man ask for?

Photos of the headboard to follow next week, lacking the fabric.

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

The Crabs Keep Pulling me Down

As you may have noticed, I'm often amazed by how, as Einstein once said (loosely paraphrased), "we do the same thing but expect a different outcome".  It really is insane.

That brings me to an observation about the economy based upon the wisdom of my mother-in-law.  Her Korean ancestors taught her this:  why is it that when crabs are in a clay pot, the ones at the bottom always pull the one near the top down?

Is there something about human nature that simply abhors success?

The stock market fell today based upon nothing that was new: seriously, there was nothing.

Did anyone NOT think that the Fed would continue QE 2? Did anyone believe that global growth would exceed 3%?  Or that China could continue to report extraordinary results?

I continue to invest expecting a different outcome when the crabs on the bottom keep pulling me down.  I'm either insane for expecting something different or my crab pot roomies are just plain evil.

The key to success in this turmoil is to break the cycle through capitulation.  Once the bottom crabs realize that life can be better at the top, they will create ladders, leaving only a few behind.  The market volatility is temporal and necessary.  It creates time for others to learn.  I'm adapting and changing my expectations.

I visited my all time favorite lumber store, Austin Lumber in Santa Ana California.  It's a terrific store with several employees who have been there for 29 years!  They know what they are doing, always offer help and would never live in a clay pot.

I needed some 6/4 and 4/4 cherry.  Steve, their guru of wood supply, immediately brought a fork lift and lowered an entire pallet of stock for me to choose from.  Can you imagine a fellow investor doing that for you?  No way-they are too busy pulling you back into the pot!

Business was obviously slow for them.  Construction has dwindled to nearly nothing.  But of course, that shouldn't be news to anyone.  So, what did Austin do?  Nope, they didn't charge me retail-they gave me the contractor's discount!!!

Thanks Austin for lending me a helping hand out of the clay pot.

Monday, July 26, 2010

Just Keep Quiet and Squeeze the Damn trigger!

Noise is all about us this morning.  I just finished reading several essays published at  Seeking Alpha (www.seekingalpha.com) and the tug of words between the bulls and bears have reached the point of an Atlas Rocket upon take-off!  It's even worse than a 25,000 rpm router!

The steady hand of an investor or woodworker requires concentration.  It requires thoughtful analysis. And, it requires knowledge.  Our markets resemble a feeding trough with our cloven hoofed friends snarling at each other over the slightest morsel of new information.  The shop is so noisy from routers, planers and saws, that you can't even measure, let alone read your plan.

Here is the problem:  too much noise and not enough conviction to squeeze the trigger.

I've measured twice but I just can't bring myself to cut the damn wood.  I keep re-checking it because something just isn't right.  I'm feeling insecure.  OMG, I may make a mistake.  As a result, nothing gets accomplished.

I read the WSJ, SeekingAlpha, CNBC and MSNBC web sites.  The talking heads have me believing that I should liquidate this week before the S&P 500 falls to 900!  No, wait, I should be buying because the S&P 500 is going to break through the 1111 mark.., No, I should be in gold.  Well, what about the technology stocks?  Shouldn't I be in them since they will lead the markets?

Enough is enough.  You need to have a plan for the long term, not for day trading.  Wood costs money (why has a sheet of paint grade 3/4" plywood skyrocketed to $40 a sheet from $25 just a few years ago? Deflation-not at Home Depot!).  You can't afford to make a mistake.  Your portfolio represents your life plan and losses, especially those made later in life, can rarely be replaced.

Stick to your long term plan.  When you triage through all the noise and filter the stocks according to your goals, buy them.

Well, Sunday in the work shop was fun.  I completed another section of the counter and will start working on the next set of shelves.  I'd show pictures but the place is still a mess.  It drives me nuts.  However, it still looks better than my sister-in-laws kitchen or my much older sister's room!