What purpose does it serve to only blog once a year?
Well, just maybe, it reflects my disgust with all the bloggers, talking heads and noise out there! Yes, it is election cycle 2012. Absolutely nothing new about any of it. Just replay 2010 and 2008. Same noise and for the most part same mouth pieces.
Too much noise.
Another year and let's see if I added anything to my base of knowledge.
I learned how to make wood glue. More specifically, hide glue. Yes, it is a little messy and perhaps even a little disgusting. How disgusting? Think about bones, cartilage, tendons and urea-boiled! The problem with it, besides the oder, is that it isn't very water resistant. Yes it works but it may not be up to the task.
That brings me to the missive for this mid year blog: sometimes, store bought glue is simply better and sometimes professional investment advise is best. You have choices. Knowing when to seek out the right resource is often most important.
And for the rest of this year, I'm suggesting that you do just that. Cool your energy to buy what appear to be deeply valued large caps. Stop chasing momentum. This is the time to learn to make better glue and find better advisers.
I'm adding Elliott Gue of Investing Daily and Jeff Miller of A Dash of Insight to my must read list. Just Google their names and join their mailing list-it's free.
Friday, August 24, 2012
Monday, August 15, 2011
Six Months of Silence
And I just can't keep quiet any longer.
Too wit, the crabs are ferocious. Nobody wants to see anyone win. Republicans, Independents and Democrats. They could care less about the our country. They only care about themselves, their ideologies and pulling the rest of us down. Revisit my prior missives to understand how predictable this behavior was.
In April, I sent an email to a handful of friends explaining that I was exiting the majority of my stock positions and working exclusively on my wife's house, otherwise known as my dog house. Why? Call it a summer sell off. Call it too many independent variables such as Europe, or the yen or the middle east. Whatever. Sell sell sell. I only wish I had sold everything.
No sense in looking in the rearview mirror while driving forward (shouldn't this be a test for drivers in NJ?). As all of you know, I never predict where the market will go; I simply follow it.
Using my cheap binoculars while still drinking decent gin, I anticipate these two macro themes for the next 12 to 18 months: 1) volatility will cool between now and mid September and then return if the S&P breaks below 1120; 2) shorting the S&P and using an inverted VIX etf will mitigate or hedge any long positions.
Too wit, the crabs are ferocious. Nobody wants to see anyone win. Republicans, Independents and Democrats. They could care less about the our country. They only care about themselves, their ideologies and pulling the rest of us down. Revisit my prior missives to understand how predictable this behavior was.
In April, I sent an email to a handful of friends explaining that I was exiting the majority of my stock positions and working exclusively on my wife's house, otherwise known as my dog house. Why? Call it a summer sell off. Call it too many independent variables such as Europe, or the yen or the middle east. Whatever. Sell sell sell. I only wish I had sold everything.
No sense in looking in the rearview mirror while driving forward (shouldn't this be a test for drivers in NJ?). As all of you know, I never predict where the market will go; I simply follow it.
Using my cheap binoculars while still drinking decent gin, I anticipate these two macro themes for the next 12 to 18 months: 1) volatility will cool between now and mid September and then return if the S&P breaks below 1120; 2) shorting the S&P and using an inverted VIX etf will mitigate or hedge any long positions.
Sunday, December 26, 2010
Happy New Year
1 plus 1/2 ounce of good gin.
1 ounce of green creme de menthe
1 ounce of cream.
Shake with ice until the metal container is just too damn cold to hold onto any more. Then poor into a tall cocktail glass.
The above is my newest creation to fight off the gloom of massive winter storms. Let it blow outside. Let it snow. Let it it be miserable. You'll have a delicious summer cocktail with the heater turned up to 80. I'll be in sunny CA dong the same thing.
Happy New Year.
1 ounce of green creme de menthe
1 ounce of cream.
Shake with ice until the metal container is just too damn cold to hold onto any more. Then poor into a tall cocktail glass.
The above is my newest creation to fight off the gloom of massive winter storms. Let it blow outside. Let it snow. Let it it be miserable. You'll have a delicious summer cocktail with the heater turned up to 80. I'll be in sunny CA dong the same thing.
Happy New Year.
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
The Right Resources
Woodworkers and investors have to cull hundreds of articles to find experts. I recently purchased a used Jet bandsaw. It's in excellent condition for its age and the previous owner added all the features I wanted: mobile base, Cool Blocks and fence. It was always my intention to replace the high tension spring. Well, trying to sift through the sales puff and the facts led me to The Source: Iturra Design of Jacksonville Florida.
Louis Iturra is the owner and apparently shuns the web as he has no web site! It's like almost 2011 and he operates like it's the 1970's. I called and left a message requesting a catalog. It took several weeks but when it arrived, what a surprise. It's thorough covering every aspect of bandsaw maintenance. It's technical but not incomprehensible. It offers high quality parts at reasonable prices.
If you own a bandsaw or are looking to buy one, contact Mr. Iturra at KALL@comcast.net. I'll be placing my first order for the high tension spring and four other parts next week.
Now, onto the resources for investing. You would think that this would be easy given the number of web pages devoted to stocks. But it isn't. There are very few reliable resources that provide independent research. I can recommend several: Credit Suisse (offered through TD Ameritrade); Jeff Saut at Raymond James and Matthew Bradbard at wbwealth.com.
Today the markets sold off. Because of the advice of both Mr. Saut and Mr. Bradbard, I placed trailing stops on my largest holdings. Both were triggered allowing me to preserve gains of over 13% and 15%.
Louis Iturra is the owner and apparently shuns the web as he has no web site! It's like almost 2011 and he operates like it's the 1970's. I called and left a message requesting a catalog. It took several weeks but when it arrived, what a surprise. It's thorough covering every aspect of bandsaw maintenance. It's technical but not incomprehensible. It offers high quality parts at reasonable prices.
If you own a bandsaw or are looking to buy one, contact Mr. Iturra at KALL@comcast.net. I'll be placing my first order for the high tension spring and four other parts next week.
Now, onto the resources for investing. You would think that this would be easy given the number of web pages devoted to stocks. But it isn't. There are very few reliable resources that provide independent research. I can recommend several: Credit Suisse (offered through TD Ameritrade); Jeff Saut at Raymond James and Matthew Bradbard at wbwealth.com.
Today the markets sold off. Because of the advice of both Mr. Saut and Mr. Bradbard, I placed trailing stops on my largest holdings. Both were triggered allowing me to preserve gains of over 13% and 15%.
Friday, October 8, 2010
You Wouldn't Use a Bone Saw to....
I started this week's blog with a simple concept: picking the right tool for the job.
Marshaling all my imagination I decided to analogize saws. And to what extremes could I go? That was easy: amputation in a surgical suite versus cutting framing lumber with a mitre saw.
I Googled "bone saw" and found a 1998 posting where a bone saw was being used to repair guitars! So much for the first creative thought for the week!
But, the topic of picking the right tool for the job is still important.
For investing, you would think the job is much easier given the plethora of timely information on the internet. But take a look at the price movements in two stocks, both significant in their respective markets: Blackstone (BX) and Seadrill (SDRL).
I've been all over the web looking for new analysis on either. Zippo. Nothing. The tool I need right now is one that tells me the enterprise or target values. Both are in movements up yet I have no idea whether to buy, hold or sell.
So, much like using a framing hammer to tack carpet, I'm using Bollinger Bands to decide what to do. Need the right tool.
Disclosure: Long both BX SDRL.
I Googled "bone saw" and found a 1998 posting where a bone saw was being used to repair guitars! So much for the first creative thought for the week!
But, the topic of picking the right tool for the job is still important.
For investing, you would think the job is much easier given the plethora of timely information on the internet. But take a look at the price movements in two stocks, both significant in their respective markets: Blackstone (BX) and Seadrill (SDRL).
I've been all over the web looking for new analysis on either. Zippo. Nothing. The tool I need right now is one that tells me the enterprise or target values. Both are in movements up yet I have no idea whether to buy, hold or sell.
So, much like using a framing hammer to tack carpet, I'm using Bollinger Bands to decide what to do. Need the right tool.
Disclosure: Long both BX SDRL.
Mariage and Gas?
I watch the relationship between oil and natural gas. It has traditionally replicated a marriage: some ups and some downs but pretty much in touch with one another . That just isn't the case today: it's a divorce.
On a BTU comparison, natural gas has never looked better as an alternative energy. Yet, the price continues to collapse. Why? simply supply.
The divorce rate is somewhere between 50 and 55% for first time marriages and much higher for multiple times around. Pessimism is deserved. But does that keep somebody from getting married again? Of course not. That's why the divorce rate is significantly higher for subsequent marriages.
And, investing in natural gas just may be the same. It's one failed investment opportunity after another.
Too many crabs. Too many crabs. Too many crabs. I'll stay on the sidelines.
On a BTU comparison, natural gas has never looked better as an alternative energy. Yet, the price continues to collapse. Why? simply supply.
The divorce rate is somewhere between 50 and 55% for first time marriages and much higher for multiple times around. Pessimism is deserved. But does that keep somebody from getting married again? Of course not. That's why the divorce rate is significantly higher for subsequent marriages.
And, investing in natural gas just may be the same. It's one failed investment opportunity after another.
Too many crabs. Too many crabs. Too many crabs. I'll stay on the sidelines.
Past Themes and Today's Performance
The Dow and S&P 500 rose about .51 and .61 respectively. Our account rose .67 resulting in us outperforming both, 4 out of 5 days. This trend will not continue. I sold about 1/3 of our position in oil resulting in a 13% profit.
Next week is anyone’s guess as is any other week. Gold is clearly over-bought. Our two diversified commodity holdings will suffer as gold is sold off. If there is a correction, I will add to both positions. Our two week results in these positions is 5.19 and 7.37. Both positions are very small and the returns insignificant relative to our portfolio.
Your account manager was Salieri, knowing that at his best, he could not equal the big boys. The noise around me all week was just too much and I couldn’t pull the trigger. The crabs are still pulling me down.
Next week is anyone’s guess as is any other week. Gold is clearly over-bought. Our two diversified commodity holdings will suffer as gold is sold off. If there is a correction, I will add to both positions. Our two week results in these positions is 5.19 and 7.37. Both positions are very small and the returns insignificant relative to our portfolio.
Your account manager was Salieri, knowing that at his best, he could not equal the big boys. The noise around me all week was just too much and I couldn’t pull the trigger. The crabs are still pulling me down.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)